Calculation of Baccarat Odds and Margins
Baccarat is one of the games of chance in which the bank has a very small profit margin of about 1.3%.
Baccarat is an extremely simple game in which only 3 types of bets can be placed, so it is also very easy to make mathematical calculations on the statistically predictable outcomes of games.
Calculating the probability of possible hand outcomes leads to the following mathematical result:
- 44.62% is the probability that the player’s hand is a winner.
- 45.85% is the probability of the player’s hand being a loser.
- 51% is the percentage that indicates the possible winning outcome for the dealer’s hand.
- 9.53% is the small probability of a tie between the two hands.
The first observation that can be made when analysing this data is that it is never a good idea to bet on a tie: although in this case the payout is 8 to 1, the odds of a draw are very low and there is also a commission of about 14% charged by the casino on the payout. Baccarat experts never place their bets on a tie for these very reasons: those who know how to play baccarat bet on either the banker’s hand or the player’s hand.
Bets on the banker’s hand and the player’s hand pay 1-to-1 winnings, but in the case of betting on the winning banker’s hand, a commission is charged on the winnings, usually 5%. The bet on the banker’s hand is therefore actually paid 0.95 to 1. Be careful: the house’s profit for this game depends almost exclusively on this commission, so always choose an online casino that applies the lowest possible percentage. You may not realise the difference on a single shot, but in the long run, too high a commission will make itself felt.
Here are the average house edge values for American Baccarat:
- 1.29% on the player’s hand.
- 1.01% on the banker’s hand (5% commission on winnings).
- 15.75% on the tie.
There is no mathematically proven system for Baccarat that allows for consistent winnings over time. That said, the small margin of the banker has made it possible to study and create optimal betting methods that reduce the “amount of luck” needed to win over time. Almost all the strategies designed for this game have the main aim of making up for losses.
In fact, it is no coincidence that Baccarat is one of the favourite games of live casino table players.
Systems Used In Baccarat
Here is a brief summary of the most common methods used in baccarat:
1-3-2-6 system: This indicates the number of units to bet in the event of consecutive wins. You start from the beginning of the series if you lose. In this way, you lose a maximum of two units per series in the event of a loss.
D’Alembert system: a method of compensating for losses in a progressive manner. Developed for roulette, it can be applied to all games where the odds are equal.
Avant-Dernier system: the system consists of betting congruently with the outcome of the last two rounds, if these have had the same result. If the sequence of the last 3 rounds was Banker, Player, Player, the system recommends betting on Player again.
Martingale System: very popular betting system for many games, it consists of doubling the bet in case of a loss to break even. It is one of the riskiest and worst-used systems ever.
